“As we all can see, lives would not be the same after this pandemic so as the business would be affected at its core. It is important to analyze and understand the changes and act accordingly to mitigate the loss”- Ajay Gupta

For Indian exporters, building trust is essential. They need to live up to promises made. They need to deliver on time and deliver the promised quality. They shouldn’t make incorrect promises just to get more business. As we can look up to Bangladesh export business who has built trust and a good reputation. Despite a chequered past (low quality, human rights issues, etc) they have managed to overcome and are winning.

Likewise, as a result of an emotional and economic backlash against China internationally, there could be apprehension in doing business with them. Businesses with supply chains passing through China will need to keep this in mind and insulate themselves and build alternatives. In addition to it, India and Indian businesses need to try to become the contract manufacturer of the world, just like China is. India needs to make use of this opportunity smartly. All big wealth funds and sovereign funds will be awash with Liquidity. This liquidity needs to be attracted to India.In every sector, there are good and bad companies. Management has to invest correctly in manufacturing and modern tech, be honest and fair to all stakeholders, etc. Those companies with good management and displaying good behavior will come out victorious.

Talking about the Wholesale and retail industry, more people will prefer to buy from retail stores where there is a perception of safety (Eg. Sanitation, cleanliness, crowds, etc). They will move more towards malls away from markets. Many will move towards online stores. Wholesale suppliers also need to concentrate on such retailers.Restaurants, companies, and big brands are strategizing and attracting their customers by giving heavy discounts, buyback offers, and many other facilities to hold back their customers. People are nowadays more inclined to cheaper goods and pricing needs to be re-approached.

Looking at jewellery business, gold-as-an-asset could see appreciation but jewellery as a discretionary spend will take a hit.The Indian wedding industry will take a hit, as social distancing, cost consciousness, travel avoidance, etc., will prevent fat weddings, destination weddings, etc. This will hit all connected industries. (Example. Silk, partywear, etc).

“The current scenario of real estate requires government intervention and support. It is likely to see a decline in the price of flats and property”

Work From Home Scenario.

• It is possible for lot of employees to not visit the office and still be productive.
• In RBL corporate office, it is found that it is enough that only 30% staff stay in the office. Others can be connected from homes. This leads to lesser commute expense, stress of the commute, time wasted, etc.
• Parents can take care of children more effectively when WFH. There can be dark hours when no calls will be made, etc

Optimism

As per a McKinsey survey of entrepreneurs released few days ago, 53% of Indian entre-preneurs are optimistic, while only 25% of Japanese entrepreneurs are optimistic. It seems to be a mild U-Curve for the Indian economy. But the descent has not stopped yet.

General Outlook

• India seems to have supressed the curve so far. It looks like it might escape the worst of the pandemic, but will have to be cautious about it.

• Possibility of W Curve – i.e. There is a good chance of re-occurrence of the virus, which could see a possibility of regular lockdowns. Businesses need to plan accordingly.
• Capital will look for countries that are less battered. Western economies are badly bat-tered while countries like India, Indonesia, etc are not so battered. Global Capital could flow into India, if we can act efficiently to pull it.
• Emotional and Economic backlash against China is expected. Already, countries and companies are working on strategy to pivot away from China as part of their supply chains. Japan Govt has announced packages for it’s companies bringing back manufacturing home. Businesses need to keep this in mind and work accordingly.

#DontROAMstayHOME

On May 12, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called upon Indians to be “vocal for local”. The ultimate strategy in which we, as citizens and professionals, interpret the local will have far-reaching effects on the country’s well-being and prosperity.

No matter if one is leading a product or services firm, brand development is a crucial element of every company. Todays’ environment and strong competition demand strong brand persona to stand out from others. In order to form a clear-cut identity and trust in the market, it is important to invest and collaborate with right the right people and brands. Real estate has a close connection with people and what we do, leaves a strong imprint in people’s lives. Hence, we are looking forwards to create an environment and society where local brands and Indian talent is embraced as a priority.

Manglam group is always dedicated and determined to work with the alignment of government policies and we also understand the need to promote ‘vocal for local’ campaign initiated by Honourable Prime Minister. There is a need to look out for better and efficient Indian substitutes of goods and services to promote and strengthen nations’ economies. This is a tough time for all of us but it can be surpassed if we join our hands and vow to come together as a team and show our true potential.

Manglam Group and family are all up to serve our nation and stood up as a family.

Jai Hind!

The economy was in poor shape even before COVID 19. The govt has little leeway to provide large stimulus. The government earns about $60-70 billion a week from taxes. Imagine what a hit a 5-week lockdown will have. The size of the Indian economy is about $3 Trillion. In some scenarios, it is predicted that Govt could take a hit of nearly $1 Trillion. Inequality has already sharpened.

The gap between rich and poor has further increased. The government needs to concentrate on mass health and mass welfare. If not, 200 million people could sink into poverty. The government must explore printing currency (Quantitative easing), but there are limitations here. It has side effects like inflation, etc. Rich countries have more leeway for such quantitative easing .The government must concentrate on grabbing more capital from outside and do reforms to enable that.

Moreover, real estate in India is sitting on a huge inventory with a huge cost-of-carry as it is highly leveraged with low margins. Unsold inventory is considered as an appreciating asset, but might turn out to be a flawed view. The market was already overdue for a huge reset, which will be accelerated by the pandemic. In addition to this, the companies can consider to set their own smaller spaces for work and encourage WFH more among employees.

Looking at the financial markets, there will be value destruction and value creation in different companies in the same sector. High Debt low margin companies will find it difficult which indicates risky or unscrupulous management. However, high Debt high margin companies could be rewarded, but caution needs to be exercised. And companies with no debt are best rewarded now.

Considering the current situation of the forex market, the government should buy as much oil as possible, as this price may never be seen in the future of the oil industry again. Furthermore, as the western economies are more battered and the Indian economy is less battered so far, there is more liquidity coming in. That’s why there is a rally in the market. This scenario could change depending on the spread of the disease in India.